Ukraine, full scale invasion ?

Crazy man David Stockman has an article supporting Russian's view. Summarizing - Ukraine has always been a corrupt government that made wrong decisions, didn't always support the USA, and Russia will eventually win anyway. Says only solution is a negotiated settlement with Russia keeping Crimea, Russian taking the rebel controlled areas, Ukraine remains neutral, no NATO membership for Ukraine, and Ukraine is allowed to keep a small military force. Not sure about Ukraine's government, laws, and freedoms but you can imagine Russia decides that.    

I guess this isn't far from the view of many prior to Putin acting like Hitler reborn and Ukrainians willing to die for their freedom. But where does the craziness end?

Ukraine cannot give into the demands of Russia. If the Ukraine falls, that will give Russia a chance to then go after Poland.
Right now it looks like a standoff. The wild card is always Putin. Has he gone crazy or is this what he wants us to think so we take a step back?

Definitely playing the crazy ivan card and the world is falling for it.

The world is up against a rock and hard place. A Dallas Fed Study said there will be a global recession without Russian oil. That's a pretty harsh conclusion but there aren't many OPEC members willing to increase oil production. I doubt the US oil industry could pump us out of this one even if given a green light. They say it might take up to 2 years to ramp things back up to pre-brandon.

There's a few dire predictions about global food shortages in 2 months or so with Ukraine and Russia making up to 30% of global wheat production. Gotta wonder how that impacts our local store shelves given how crazy the covid pandemic toilet paper shortage rumor went. With all the corn we produce there should be plenty of corn tortillas but this could be another inflation stressor.

It looks like WTI oil is $114 today. I filled up unleaded at costco for $5.05/gal and that was a bargain compared to other filling station options. It didn't help price Memorial Weekend is a day away.

NatGas is near record highs at over $9.

Today, our local gas is around $4.65 on average. Costco is $4.59.
It will go up again soon especially with the weekend holiday.

WTI (west texas crude) is $120 and our local Costco is $5.29/gal for regular unleaded and other local stations are matching that price. Our local Costco doesn't sell diesel but other stations are showing almost $6/gal.

We are getting close to the $5.00 gallon mark. The lines at Costco are so long that I won't wait 30 minutes to fill up.

Around $4.29 here for Reg. It was under $4 a weeks ago. Looks like we have Jimmy carter 2.0 in office.

theshyguy wrote:

Around $4.29 here for Reg. It was under $4 a weeks ago. Looks like we have Jimmy carter 2.0 in office.

He's worse than Carter.

Regular is $5.45 at costco today. Costco's gas attendant says costco's prices are most competitive when gas prices are dropping. I guess that's why I'm not seeing much savings these days.

No worries though. Yellen says there's nothing indicating a recession is coming. I guess we can ignore today's U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey's all time low reading. Another stat - reportedly, the US has never avoided a recession when inflation was over 5%. I guess there's always a first time.

Even if Inflation were to tame down it would still have a long ripple effect on prices. We are screwed

Fuel prices came down this week with Costco at $4.69 beating the pack. WTI crude was under $100/barrel the last few days but now is near $105.

At some point the government will need to replenish the nearly 100 million barrels of strategic oil reserve drawn down this year. I think the max storage capacity is around 600-700 millions barrels.

Sounds like Germany is hinting about pulling back from the EU boycott of Russian energy. And possibly related, Sri Lanka has days of fuel remaining and is reportedly certain to declare bankruptcy.

Maybe Joe can buy back our reserves he sold off to China and Europe.

pup wrote:

Maybe Joe can buy back our reserves he sold off to China and Europe.

For more than he sold them for.

pup wrote:

Maybe Joe can buy back our reserves he sold off to China and Europe.

There's some crazy stuff going on these days.

Appears the HIMARS units are making a dent.
Front line fires

The Ukrainians are definitely putting up one heck of a fight.
Imagine the demand on raw materials if they ever get a chance to rebuild.

Diesel Dan wrote:

Appears the HIMARS units are making a dent.
Front line fires

The Ukrainians are definitely putting up one heck of a fight.
Imagine the demand on raw materials if they ever get a chance to rebuild.

No kidding! I hope US taxpayers aren't on the hook to pay for rebuilding.

They say Putler's strategy is to hold out for winter as the EU will crumble with a shortage of nat gas to keep warm. Hopefully he loses power before. A compromised settlement might include Russia paying for reconstruction and keeping occupied territory.

Everything we guessed/thought Putin would do turned out to not work:

When he loses a lot of troops, he will pull out
The economic sanctions will hurt them bad. No, it hasn't
He will be overthrow from power
He has the shakes and some mystery illness and will die soon

Putin does not care about his own people let alone Ukraine. He will continue to throw his troops as cannon fodder. Eventually it is a war of attrition which Ukraine will run out of soldiers.

I hope I am wrong, but this war will go on forever. The EU will cave once they can't cook or warm their homes in winter.

Yes, probably so.

And Pelosi's sudden fatal attraction with Taiwan is odd. US military advised against the trip but she still feels the need to stir things up. Maybe an attempted dem party distraction from economic worries and/or her husband's stock trades? It's gonna be a bad situation if this triggers China's movement into Taiwan. There goes Taiwan semiconductor and a slew of other companies the world needs to supply important goods and services. The TMSC fab plant in Phoenix is still a few years away from producing chips.

Diseasel wrote:

Yes, probably so.

And Pelosi's sudden fatal attraction with Taiwan is odd. US military advised against the trip but she still feels the need to stir things up. Maybe an attempted dem party distraction from economic worries and/or her husband's stock trades? It's gonna be a bad situation if this triggers China's movement into Taiwan. There goes Taiwan semiconductor and a slew of other companies the world needs to supply important goods and services. The TMSC fab plant in Phoenix is still a few years away from producing chips.

There has been rumblings of China wanting to grab Taiwans semiconductor business before her trip was talked about.
Taiwan semiconductor

Quickest way to get rich these days is to follow what stocks Pelosi's husband buys, and buy them too. He has the best insider info on the planet.

Can you imagine China threatening to shoot down the plane carrying the US Speaker of the House under any other President than Biden?
Thats the level of weakness that Surrender Joe projects to the world. One of the main reasons Putin is in Ukraine right now.

One could argue it'd be like Russia sending a high level diplomat to Puerto Rico with a squadron of armed MIGs without our approval too. In a way, Taiwan is Chinas Cuba. Cuba, 90 miles from coast. Taiwan, 100 miles from coast.

The island of Taiwan is only 14,000 Sq miles which is less than 2x that of the Metropolitain Nashville area (7500 sq mi). Cuba is almost 43,000 sq mi in size.

China is 100% wrong on the 9 dash line but the whole Taiwan thing is a sticky mess.

Been a slight turn of events over the last few weeks I'd say.

My concern is Putin doing something stupid as he realizes his army can't/won't fight he will resort to Nukes.

TheQuig wrote:

My concern is Putin doing something stupid as he realizes his army can't/won't fight he will resort to Nukes.

Or wreck that huge nuclear power station on his way out and blame it on Ukraine.

Looks like Ukraine is getting some armored personnel carrier and if Germany decides to actually be worth a shit, some more modern tanks.

Putin has boxed himself into a hole. His days have to be numbered.